Ultrasabers Second Summer Raffle 2016 Winners

[James Casey]

Question. Several parts of my order are on back-order, does anyone know if prizes are generally held and shipped with the rest of the order, or shipped separately in such cases? (I ask here because I know US is super busy and I don't want to pester them about a saber they're giving me for free. )  

Typically the whole order will ship in one go. I suspect you could ask for separate shipping for the parts available now, but obviously you'd have to pay the extra shipping if they could accommodate that.

As to how many people enter... Only US could say for sure. Some folks win big, some folks 'just' get an awesome sabre or sabres

I got my shipping notice a few minutes ago. Anyone else?

[Mast3r_Praesorem]

I just got the email that my order has been shipped and I am so excited to see what saber I got in the raffle! Thanks UltraSabers for their great products and willingness to give back to the community!

[bigBear]

hopefully was get to see some cool one off concepts like before.

[Xehanort]

Got my shipping notice a couple hours ago! So ready to open this bad boy up Monday for my menace and raffle prize! Also this will be my first review so I'm gonna throw it in the unboxing to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

[Stangzorz]

Got my shipping notice earlier today, next Tuesday can't come soon enough! Pictures will definitely be coming and I'm thinking about doing an unboxing video to capture my reaction to whatever my prize ends up being!

[Rozurial]

Oh man! I had been away from electronics for a few days and just looked at the lists, total amazement!! Thank you so much to Emory and all the fantastic generous people at US for a first prize win 😁 I am beyond ecstatic! My entry was for my daughter's bday coming up, and with the raffle win, now all of my children and my wife and I have awesome sabers. Congrats to all the winners and a most heart felt best of luck on the next raffle for everyone.

[StarWarsForce]

Got my shipping notice five hours ago! This was the first time I entered a raffle, and so I didn't know how long it'd be until sabers were sent out (as I know US holds orders until after the raffle). Glad it was faster than I anticipated. Tuesday can't come quick enough! Thanks for the 4th place prize again, US!

[Fortesmythe]

     Although I have no idea how the order numbers work, I highly doubt there were 2,000+ people who entered,
Looking at the records for this raffle, most of the order numbers were in the upper 160,000's to the low 170,000's. In the first 2016 summer raffle, the order numbers were mostly in the upper 150,000's to the low 160,000's. And given that there were about 3 months between raffles, that suggests about 10,000 orders during that time. Or about 3,333 orders during the time of the raffle.
     However I doubt that all of those orders actually entered, or at least entered successfully; since it's not a simple "spend $250 or more and you're automatically in" raffle. They had to join/already be a part of the forum, post the raffle code, and give their forum name. (The idea of which is to get more people interested and coming back for more US, instead of of just having a bunch of one-time buyers only interested in the raffle.) I bet the number of people who actually entered the raffle successfully was much, much lower than 2,000+.
     For further evidence, this was my first US order/raffle. And I won. My friend entered the last raffle, and won, first prize, I think? That was his third US order, and his first raffle. There's no way that the chances of winning are more than 19/1 to potentially 32/1 with two entries and two wins like that.   

As I don't work for US, I can't speak with any certainty about their order numbering, but it would seem highly unintuitive to have an order numbering system that didn't simply go in a numerical order.  We see there are both even and odd order numbers, so it's not like the order numbers skip any that can be discerned.  Considering these raffles are highly popular, it would not be a huge stretch to assume that there were a very large number of entries for the raffle.

However, I work with data and statistics for a living.  Your anecdote about two winners in two raffles is just that, anecdotal.  There have been lottery winners where the odds are so insurmountably high win multiple times.  It happens.  I have, and friends I know, have placed 2 to 5 raffle tickets in a given raffle (breaking up orders of multiple sabers to get multiple tickets) and not won on any ticket.  That doesn't mean that the odds are poor, either.  The only way to evaluate is with raw numbers, not how a contest feels easy to win or feels easy to lose. 

2000 entries doesn't mean 2000 individual buyers.  It just means 2000 individual instances of $250 spent.  There are people on here all the time saying they buy 2 or 3 sabers at a time, sometimes with sound.  That's easily 500-750 dollars spent netting them 3 of the 2000 tickets and thus whittling the number of buyers down to around 750 over a two and a half week period.  I doubt that the number of people who bought were THAT high, too.  However, I have no real way of knowing.  There were approximately 150 new forum users added who acknowledged the rules section properly during the time of the raffle.  I would wager there were at least that many if not more veteran buyers considering how addicting buying can be (and how many benevolent souls like myself are out there buying sabers for other people) How many entries were likely put in?  That's only for US to know and it would be unwise for them to go around advertising the odds as it might discourage people from buying.  I will not make a speculation based on so little data as to what the exact odds are, because that is irresponsible statistics, however I would not personally be shocked to find the odds are close to what you think it couldn't possibly be.

[Drahcir]

Hey guys, please cut down the chatter about odds and statistics of the raffles.
It's not really in the spirit of these things to break them down like this.

[bigBear]

we could guess for a long time, but how many signed up and never posted? just from looking and doing the math there was over 2200 between lowest number and highest number on the winners. they also added more prizes (probly based off % of sales from the raffle) so we got more than 95 winners. we don't know how many exact were multiple orders or the number of non qualifying orders fit into the number ratio....so we can only guess. but, only a fraction will end up winning. we'd have placed our orders either way (maybe sooner than planned)

[hazard502]

Hey guys, please cut down the chatter about odds and statistics of the raffles.
It's not really in the spirit of these things to break them down like this.

I just want to reiterate this - simply put . . . we'll never know, so lets focus on the facts we do know . . . you're getting an awesome saber, you took a chance with this awesome promotion, and just enjoy the fun experience that this is for our community 

[Lord Sidious]

Yep, focus on the facts. I bought an entry saber and I won. 

Congratulations to everyone who is getting a new saber or two or more.

[ukyavuz]

Second part of my plan is on the way with a second tier reward. Something will happen soon 😈

Note to self it is hard not to give spoilers

[Dino27]

... however I would not personally be shocked to find the odds are close to what you think it couldn't possibly be.

Interesting.
In that case, I shall count myself fortunate, instead of counting the odds.

Hey guys, please cut down the chatter about odds and statistics of the raffles.
It's not really in the spirit of these things to break them down like this.

Yes sir!    Sorry about that.

 

[Vervidian]

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-26236-never-tell-me-the-odds-gif-Han-cQX9.gif